A Romanian in Africa

The Failed States Index for 2008 is up on www.fundforpeace.org. While it is widely criticized for its Western like beliefs considered a weapon of the United States that would legitimize external intervention in other countries, it is still interesting to analyze from a pure sociological point of view. The Failed States Index is measured on 12 indicators, which are divided on three major areas of interest: Social, Economic and Political. These are the indicators used to measure the degree of failure for countries around the world.

Social Indicators

I-1. Mounting Demographic Pressures

I-2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

I-3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia

I-4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

Economic Indicators

I-5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines

I-6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline

Political Indicators

I-7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State

I-8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services

I-9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights

I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a “State Within a State”

I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites

I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors

In the words of the people from Foreign Policy, one of the main partners of the project: “Because it is crucial to closely monitor weak states—their progress, their deterioration, and their ability to withstand challenges—the Fund for Peace, an independent research organization, and FOREIGN POLICY present the fourth annual Failed States Index. Using 12 social, economic, political, and military indicators, we ranked 177 states in order of their vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration. To do so, we examined more than 30,000 publicly available sources, collected from May to December 2007, to form the basis of the index’s scores. The 60 most vulnerable states are listed in the rankings, and the full results are available at ForeignPolicy.com and fundforpeace.org.”

The Failed States Index only includes sovereign states which are recognized by the United Nations. For that reason, countries like Kosovo, Palestine, Somaliland or Taiwan are not included. There are 15 states not included in the index due to the lack of data.

According to this year’s Index, Somalia is the number failed state in the world while Norway is the most sustainable. Moreover, seven out of the ten most failed states in the world are from Africa, namely Somalia (1^st), Sudan (2^nd), Zimbabwe (3^rd), Chad (4^th), the Democratic Republic of Congo (6^th), Cote D’Ivoire (8^th) and the Central African Republic (10^th).

There are currently 35 failed states; 19 are African, one more than last year (Cameroon was added this year to the index as one of the failed states).

The way the index works is rather peculiar. It awards points on a scale from 1 to 10 to every country. The more you get, the higher you find yourself on the list. In pure statistical terms, for a state to be completely failed (in my opinion that would mean it is a non-state, but that’s a different debate) it needs to “gain” a maximum of points of 120.

Since this year’s top three failed states are African I will direct my attention to these countries for now.

1. Somalia

The report claims Somalia is the most failed state in the world. Truth to be told, most of the researchers do not even call it a Failed State anymore but a Collapsed State. A collapsed state is a state that is not functional at all, or better said, it exists only in theory. Somalia scored a record amount of points this year: 114.2, which is also the closest a state ever got to complete failure in the last 4 editions, since the Failed States Index was first published.

The country report shows that none of Somalia’s indicators improved since the last year’s index.

Social Indicators: the index claims that the demographic pressure increased dramatically, which can also be seen in the table listed above. Researchers found out that, paradoxically, Somalia experienced a high population growth in the last year. However, 45% of the population is under the age of 15 and in danger of extinction due to the severe food shortages the country is experiencing. The piracy is also listed as one of the top causes of failure.

Economic Indicators: The Uneven Development indicator remains at 7.5 due to the fact that the country registers no coherent development strategy whatsoever. Somalia is also experiencing one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world (an average of 111 deaths/ 1000 births) and one of the highest percentages of children dying before reaching the age of five (more than one quarter of the whole population.)

Political Indicators: These Indicators are the worst indicators for one country ever registered. The country has absolutely no legitimacy, the state delivers no public services, the security apparatus is nonexistent, and the external intervention has been one of the most important causes of failure in the last three years.

Somalia scores poor on the accountability of all the core five state institutions: leadership, military, police, judiciary, and civil service.

2. Sudan

Social Indicators: In the social sector most indicators improved since the last year’s index. The reasons listed in the report are: the efforts and results in providing basic services of the humanitarian workers, the presence of the UN-African Union Peacekeeping forces and the fact that fewer Darfurians have been internally displaced since last year. Unfortunately, the report doesn’t also explore the possibility that the demographic pressure decreased due to the fact that thousands died in the last year due to the genocidal attacks organized by the Janjaweed.

Economic Indicators: The GDP experienced an unforeseen growth in the last year of 12.8% mainly due to foreign investment, trade agreements, agricultural production (everywhere else but Darfur), and the increase in oil production. I have to admit that in some sectors China, who controls 13 out of 15 exporting companies, actually helped Sudan improve its economic record.

Political Indicators: The Legitimacy of the State remained at 10.0 (the worse case scenario) due to three major causes: the genocide in Darfur, rising tensions between North and South, and the continuing tensions between Sudan and Chad (who also scored 4^th in the Failed States index!). Sudan’s Human Rights status improved slightly from 10.0 to 9.9, and so did the security of the citizens from 9.9 to 9.8. However, these are extremely high figures; which means that the actual lives of the people in Darfur experienced almost no real change. The External Intervention increased from 9.8 to 9.9. Also, the score for factionalized elites worsened from 9.7 to 9.9 due to the fact that the rebels have split and are now creating more and more fighting factions.

Sudan also scores poor on the accountability of most core five state institutions: military, police, judiciary, and civil service. The report claims the leadership status changed from poor to weak.

3.Zimbabwe

On most accounts, Zimbabwe scores much worse than the previous two countries. However, due to the low score on External Intervention (7.0 in oppose to 9.9 or 10) and on the status of Internally Displaced People (9.0 instead of 9.6 or 9.8) it only scored 3^rd in the overall Index on Political Failure.

Social Indicators: Demographic pressures are high. The country experiences high mortality rates, with a low expectancy of 39.73 years due to the high number of HIV positive Zimbabweans and the extreme poverty they are experiencing. The Human rights indicator increased from 9.1 to 10 due to the numerous human rights incidents recorded prior and during the presidential elections.

Economic Indicators: Zimbabwe’s GDP is estimated at $6.886 billions while its public debt is 189.9% of GDP. 85% of the population is unemployed and 80& of Zimbabweans live on less than 2 dollars a day.

Political Indicators: All political indicators improved or stagnated from last year. The government is supposed to be completely illegitimate. The allegations of torture and excessive force have increased the human rights indicators.

If you want more details about the Failed States Index Scores click here. You will be redirected to the Main Page of the Index, where you can choose to look at every single country rated in the Index. There you are able to get more details on any country that you’re interested in, from any part of the world.