A Romanian in Africa

After ten years of hatred, bellicose declarations, and despicable reciprocal verbal attacks, Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai finally shake hands under the close supervision of Thabo Mbeki, the notorious South African president who has failed to bring the two men at the same table for more than six years. The two parties, Zanu-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change have signed a Memorandum of Understanding that is in theory supposed to put an end to the political

chaos in which Zimbabwe has sunk the beginning of the new millenium. Many political analysts have argued that this is really a positive step towards stopping and eventually reversing the economic ruin that characterizes both the private and the public sectors in Zimbabwe. If it were that simple to end this political turmoil, why didn’t Mbeki bring the two men together in 2002 one might ask.

Many people seem optimistic about this meeting but facts say otherwise. In reality, this meeting brings no practical change in Zimbabwe. People will not start having jobs tomorrow, the economy will not redress for many years to come and the abuses of power are certainly not going to stop overnight.

It is however a small victory for Thabo Mbeki, the South President whose image has been compromised for good due to the extremely poor management of the crisis in Zimbabwe. He can, at least secretly, send the United States and the United Kingdom the message he has been struggling for years to send: “I told you so.” In practice, this message in not at all as powerful as Mbeki hoped it will be. While, yes, it opens the door for a political settlement it is hard to believe the two parties will actually agree on any matters. In fact, most of the points of discussion incorporate in the Memorandum of Understatement only seem to be designed to maintain the status quo.

What is the Zanu-PF trying to get out of this MOU?

President Mugabe should be immediately recognized as the official president of Zimbabwe despite the fact that he practically ran unopposed in a one-man election. The 2001 land reform, considered illegal by the High Court of Zimbabwe, should be irreversible and the government will pay no compensations to the previous white owners. Zanu-PF also wants to form a government of national unity. They would agree with limited changes to the constitution. All economic restrictions should be lifted as well as all travel restrictions imposed on Mugabe and his closest 120 associates.

What about the MDC?

The MDC is trying to form a transitional government until another round of elections will be organized, preferably in 2010. All MDC supporters should be immediately released and all elected deputies and senators should be sworn in as soon as possible. Moreover, the MDC wants guarantees that the violence and the targeting of its supporters will stop. Also those guilty for the killing of more than 100 people should be brought to justice. MDC wants significant changed to the constitution that would limit the president to a maximum of two mandates.

Practically, if one looks at the list presented above he/she can notice a few things. Zanu-PF wants no dramatic changes. It will only accept a government of national unity and that not because it’s the right thing to do, but because the party is under significant international pressure. One thing that puzzles me greatly is the demand regarding the lifting of the international restrictions. In other words, Zanu-PF says if you don’t leave us alone and give us access to the same international system that helped us siphon billions of US dollars out of the country, we will have no deal and the crisis will continue. And Mbeki tells us this is a step forward? Even if all Zanu-PF’s demands would be accepted, it is hard to believe the situation would redress over night, but the arrogance of Zanu-PF is simply stunning. Moreover, by listing the aforementioned set of demands, the presidential party admits no responsibility for its prior mismanagements, corruption deals or repressions of the population. The Zanu-PF politicians also expect nothing to change regarding the land reform as if that did not have anything to do with the current situation.

Yes, there is going to be a negotiation team sent by each of the party consisting of five party members of each side plus a technical team that will evaluate their proposals. Yes, they will secretly, away from the press, most likely in South Africa. Yes, Mugabe claims this decision should be made by “Zimbabweans only.” Yet what’s the decision to take? On one side you have a party that signs a MOU asking for no radical changes yet expecting other forces, both internal and international to change. On the other hand, you have a party that has a series of reasonable demands but without any clues on how to run a country, since Zimbabwe has been run by the same team for almost 30 years. A sort of a lose-lose situation, unless dramatic changes occur inside both parties.

The MOU makes no reference to the fact that the government threatened and disregarded the judicial system. That officials forming the government have instigated to violence and possibly have killed fellow Zimbabwean with their own hands. It makes to reference whatsoever to redistributions or compensations to the thousands of white people who unlawfully lost their houses or their lives. So we don’t empower justice, we don’t charge the corrupted people, we don’t change the president, we don’t show any signs of a democracy, we do not prevent the civil society from being suppressed and harassed during the next years and possibly at the next elections. And yet we expect big changes, glamorous social, political and economic transformation. And all of us should stand up and say Congratulation Comrade Bob. Good for you Comrade Mbeki. You guys are the best. You guys are shaping the world we live in.

Doesn’t this look like a really, really bad play, with awful actors and a terrible script? And when the play finally ends what are we suppose to do? Give them a tepid round of applause and kiss them on both their cheeks? Yeah….right.

Photo Credit: Associated Press